“Will Rick Perry to win a Republican primary/caucus in 2012? —Intrade”

Created by gwern on 2011-10-31; known on 2012-08-27; judged wrong by nohat on 2012-08-21.

• gwern estimated 65% on 2011-10-31
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=753304 non-trading” on 2011-10-31
• gwern said “see also winning nomination: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3015” on 2011-10-31
• JoshuaZ estimated 71% on 2011-10-31
• chemotaxis101 estimated 55% on 2011-11-05
• nohat   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-08-21.