A complete functional simulation of the C. elegans nervous system will exist on 2014-06-08; 76% —David Dalrymple

Created by gwern on 2011-10-31; known on 2014-06-08; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-06-08.

• gwern estimated 50% on 2011-10-31
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/88g/whole_brain_emulation_looking_at_progress_on_c/54sn” on 2011-10-31
• gwern said “smells like planning fallacy to me too” on 2011-10-31
• JoshuaZ estimated 25% and said “Seems extremely optimistic to me given prior difficulties. Tags: [biology][technology][neuroscience]. ” on 2011-10-31
• Arets Paeglis estimated 65% on 2011-11-05
• Grognor estimated 10% on 2013-01-09
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2013-05-23
• lukeprog estimated 15% on 2013-06-27
• Jach estimated 30% on 2013-08-17
• waveman estimated 15% and said “18 months is not long enough. ” on 2014-01-17
• JoshuaZ said “Any objections to marking this wrong, or shoul we wait to see if something gets published about this in the next few weeks?” on 2014-06-08
• gwern said “wait a bit, I think. maybe track down david to ask” on 2014-06-08
• waveman estimated 2% and said “We would have heard it if had happened. ” on 2014-06-08
• waveman   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-06-08.
• Jayson Virissimo said “http://www.openworm.org/” on 2014-06-09
• waveman said “They are getting pretty close now. http://www.gizmag.com/openworm-nematode-roundworm-simulation-artificial-life/30296/” on 2015-01-02
• gwern said “even that worm is not very impressive, I get the sense. not much of a behavioral repertoire (does it learn at all?)” on 2015-01-02