LW: average IQ in survey will be at or above the 98th percentile and thus eligible for Mensa membership.
Created by Robert Kosten on 2011-11-01; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-04.
- Robert Kosten estimated 90% on 2011-11-01
- JoshuaZ estimated 45% on 2011-11-01
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 40% on 2011-11-01
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 40% on 2011-11-01
- Jayson Virissimo said “are you guys actually taking the self reported scores at face value” on 2011-11-01
- TrE said “The question is about what number comes out in the survey, not what the actual average is. Selection effects might skew it.” on 2011-11-01
- chemotaxis101 estimated 55% on 2011-11-01
- Robert Kosten said “I expect the numbers to be skewed upwards, thus my 90% certainty.” on 2011-11-01
- muflax estimated 95% and said “it’s almost certainly skewed, see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/4128 for narrower prediction” on 2011-11-01
- fergus estimated 95% on 2011-11-02
- RobertLumley estimated 95% on 2011-11-10
- lavalamp estimated 85% on 2011-11-10
- daenerys estimated 90% on 2011-11-10
- Sophronius estimated 70% on 2011-11-11
- Metus estimated 70% on 2011-11-11
- Nic_Smith estimated 35% and said “I have doubts that the skew/filtering will be that severe.” on 2011-11-11
- Anubhav estimated 30% on 2011-11-11
- shokwave estimated 90% and said “98th percentile is variously 131 / 133 / 136, last survey was 145” on 2011-11-14
- Nic_Smith estimated 60% on 2011-11-14
- Grognor estimated 53% on 2011-12-04
- muflax judged this prediction right on 2011-12-04.