LW: average IQ in survey will be 140-145.

Created by muflax on 2011-11-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-04.

• muflax estimated 70% on 2011-11-01
• muflax said “survey: http://lesswrong.com/lw/89a/2011_less_wrong_census_survey/” on 2011-11-01
• Gedusa estimated 40% and said “That’s a pretty narrow range. I’m also conditioning on the likelihood of Yvain allowing the SAT estimation.” on 2011-11-01
• JoshuaZ estimated 40% and said “I agree. Too narrow. ” on 2011-11-01
• PseudonymousUser estimated 35% on 2011-11-01
• beo_shaffer estimated 30% on 2011-11-01
• Robert Kosten estimated 20% and said “Actually eligibility for Mensa membership, or using their criteria (based on being in the 98th percentile instead of an absolute score, which tends to differ wildly between different tests), would be a better base for this prediction, I think.” on 2011-11-01
• TrE estimated 30% on 2011-11-01
• falenas108 estimated 25% and said “I would say that’s it’s pretty likely that the average IQ for Less Wrong went down over the past 2 years. Side effect of becoming more mainstream.” on 2011-11-03
• RobertLumley estimated 40% on 2011-11-10
• daenerys estimated 30% on 2011-11-10
• lavalamp estimated 28% on 2011-11-10
• Sophronius estimated 35% on 2011-11-11
• Anubhav estimated 10% on 2011-11-11
• muflax   judged this prediction right on 2011-12-04.
• PseudonymousUser said “for the record, it was 140: http://lesswrong.com/lw/8p4/2011_survey_results/” on 2011-12-04
• Anubhav said “And with this, the correlation between the confidence and accuracy of my predictions drops down to 0.18. <sigh> ” on 2011-12-05