Holographic television will be widely available by 2021.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2021-11-01; judged unknown by tswift on 2011-11-04.

  • NathanMcKnight estimated 80% on 2011-11-02
  • JoshuaZ estimated 35% on 2011-11-02
  • gwern said “essentially a dupe: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1867on 2011-11-02
  • tswift   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-11-04.
  • tswift   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-11-04.
  • tswift estimated 50% and said “What does widely available mean? If some website sells it and anyone can buy it, then by that measure it is widely available, but in the same situation maybe nobody is using iton 2011-11-04
  • NathanMcKnight said “I define “widely available” as being available for purchase at more than one major retail business, either online or brick-and-mortar… Amazon and Target, for example, or whatever the 2021 equivalent might be.on 2011-11-11

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