Barack Obama will win the 2012 U.S. presidential election.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.

• NathanMcKnight estimated 75% on 2011-11-02
• ScaldingHotSoup estimated 70% on 2011-11-02
• montsamu said “Already being predicted at http://predictionbook.com/predictions/452” on 2011-11-02
• ka estimated 50% on 2011-11-02
• tswift   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-11-04.
• tswift said “No way… he is highly unpopular and people want real change” on 2011-11-04
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-11-04.
• JoshuaZ said “tswift, please give probability estimates and don’t judge predictions before their deadlines. ” on 2011-11-04
• HonoreDB estimated 75% on 2011-11-04
• hackedtobits estimated 65% on 2011-11-04
• mail2345 estimated 60% on 2012-04-17
• RandomThinker estimated 70% on 2012-04-17
• Pablo estimated 78% and said “Intrade: 78.3” on 2012-09-29
• Qiaochu estimated 62% and said “62.9% on FiveThirtyEight. 61.6% on Intrade. ” on 2012-10-14
• HonoreDB   judged this prediction right on 2012-11-07.