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The “technological singularity” will be a major paradigm shift for humanity.

Created by steve1interstock on 2011-11-02; known on 2111-11-02; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-05.

  • steve1interstock estimated 88% on 2011-11-02
  • JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2011-11-02
  • gwern said “if the singularity happens as recogizable as ‘the’ singularity, this is true by definition. if it is not a paradigm shift, then how are you sure it is ‘the technological singularity’?” on 2011-11-02
  • kurthr estimated 100% and said “This is a tautology. Any singularity will cause a paradigm shift. Perhaps the “knee” in the exponential will be particularly unobservable so you could have a singularity without anyone noticing?” on 2011-11-02
  • tswift estimated 100% and said “If it is widely known at the ‘singularity’, then yes obviously it will be a major paradigm shift.” on 2011-11-04
  • tayschren   judged this prediction right on 2011-11-04.
  • tayschren said “50 years to singulare to amazon” on 2011-11-04
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-11-04.
  • mirror2mirror   judged this prediction right on 2011-11-05.
  • mirror2mirror said “i hope i’d still be alive and lucid” on 2011-11-05
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-11-05.
  • JoshuaZ said “mirror2mirrow, don’t judge predictions before they happen. If you want to make a prediction then input a percentage estimate under “how sure are you?”” on 2011-11-05
  • antsan estimated 100% and said “Isn’t that tautological?” on 2011-11-06
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 100% and said “Yes, tautologies occur with a probability of 1.” on 2011-11-06
  • JoshuaZ said “antsan and Jayson, kurthr gave one example of how this could fail. Or a Singularity might not happen. ” on 2011-11-15
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 90% and said “good point, should have thought of that” on 2011-11-15
  • Jayson Virissimo said “BTW, I was interpreting the statement to be “if the singularity happens, then it will be a paradigm shift” and not “the singularity will happen and it will be a paradigm shift”.” on 2011-11-15
  • Anubhav estimated 80% on 2011-11-17
  • Tuxedage estimated 100% on 2013-01-03
  • NathanMcKnight said “Don’t think we have a consensus on what this actually means. Is it conditional on the singularity happening? Being recognized? ” on 2015-12-07
  • themusicgod1 estimated 94% on 2016-10-09