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Evidence of extraterrestrial life will be discovered by 2017.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2017-01-01

  • NathanMcKnight estimated 60% on 2011-11-02
  • JoshuaZ said “What do you mean by evidence? There’s already some evidence (see for example the Viking probe results) but the evidence is weak and somewhat contradictory. By the way, see predictions 576, 2803, 3010, 3011, 3012 )” on 2011-11-02
  • NathanMcKnight said “I mean evidence widely accepted within the scientific community. I’ll check out the other predictions you mentioned. Thanks.” on 2011-11-02
  • JoshuaZ estimated 5% and said “Hmm, in that case, seems way too high. ” on 2011-11-02
  • muflax estimated 5% on 2011-11-02
  • gwern estimated 5% and said “no obvious probes I know of before 2017, and all other methods are highly unlikely (SETI has run how many decades now?)” on 2011-11-02
  • Sandra Åhlén estimated 20% on 2011-11-02
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2011-11-02
  • Gedusa estimated 1% on 2011-11-02
  • falenas108 estimated 3% and said “The past is the best predictor of the future. Yes, technology will be improved, but not that much in the next 6 years.” on 2011-11-03
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 10% on 2011-11-03
  • tswift estimated 50% and said “Is water evidence? I have no idea what this question means” on 2011-11-04
  • chemotaxis101 estimated 30% on 2011-11-05
  • RobertLumley estimated 2% on 2011-11-10
  • lavalamp estimated 1% on 2011-11-10
  • TrE estimated 4% and said “Who would announce the discovery of good evidence for extraterrestrial life? I’d rather refer to an authority (such as NASA) to announce this.” on 2011-11-10
  • Metus estimated 5% and said ““Evidence” could mean even an imbalance between L- and D-form of amino acids. I require something stronger than that.” on 2011-11-11
  • amcknight estimated 0% and said “my prediction would be much lower if it wasn’t for the great exoplanet work going on.” on 2011-11-11
  • Anubhav estimated 1% on 2011-11-11
  • Isaac estimated 0% on 2011-11-11
  • NathanMcKnight withdrew the prediction on 2011-11-11
  • NathanMcKnight said “I’ve withdrawn this prediction and created a new one for clarity.” on 2011-11-11
  • amcknight said “0.01%” on 2011-11-16