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President Barak Obama will be re-elected, the Democrats will retain the Senate, and retake the House of Representatives. This will not prevent a great deal of obstructionism to anything he wants to get passed, particularly in the Senate.

Created by MuscleCBT on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-11-11; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.

  • MuscleCBT estimated 80% on 2011-11-02
  • JoshuaZ estimated 15% and said “Not sure how to judge the last part. But the rest looks like potential conjunction fallacy (not completely so because the three are correlated with each other.)” on 2011-11-02
  • gwern estimated 40% and said “there is no way obama alone has an 80% chance of re-election! no model gives him that high odds! and then all that other stuff…” on 2011-11-02
  • Isaac estimated 75% and said “this is not about models though, this is about someone’s opinion. i believe he will be re-elected and i am 75% sure of it” on 2011-11-02
  • gwern said “Well, make enough predictions, isaacn16, and you’ll learn not to be so overconfident.” on 2011-11-02
  • Sandra Åhlén estimated 35% on 2011-11-02
  • falenas108 estimated 35% and said “We would need more than a year to see if the last part is true.” on 2011-11-03
  • JoshuaZ said “Hmm, isaac or Muscle, would either of you be willing to make a bet on this sort of thing? ” on 2011-11-03
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 20% on 2011-11-04
  • tswift   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-11-04.
  • Jayson Virissimo said “@tswift, which part of the conjunction has already been falsified?” on 2011-11-04
  • Jayson Virissimo   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-11-04.
  • RobertLumley estimated 10% on 2011-11-10
  • Anubhav estimated 30% on 2011-11-11
  • Nic_Smith estimated 25% and said “Intrade’s fairly consistently said both houses will go to the Republicans, currently both in the 70-80% range; roughly matches party breakdown for local offices in the recent election. Can’t imagine 2012 GOP President with Dem congress.” on 2011-11-12
  • NathanMcKnight estimated 15% on 2011-11-12
  • fork estimated 60% on 2011-11-12
  • fork estimated 10% and said “Must have missed the part about the House.” on 2011-11-15
  • HonoreDB estimated 38% on 2011-11-16
  • capcuervo estimated 30% on 2011-11-26
  • iconreforged estimated 10% on 2012-01-27
  • drethelin estimated 5% and said “Too conjuncty and speculative, especially the last part” on 2012-09-09
  • jbeshir estimated 10% on 2012-09-10
  • HonoreDB   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-11-07.
  • HonoreDB said “Democrats did not retake the House.” on 2012-11-07