The EU will essentially break up into groups of countries with different worldviews within the next 3 years. Prediction date 2nd November, 2011.

Created by Fledi on 2011-11-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by mad on 2014-11-02.

• Fledi estimated 75% on 2011-11-02
• JoshuaZ estimated 20% on 2011-11-02
• gwern said “Fledi, no need to include when you made the prediction. also, what is ‘essentially’? how would someone who isn’t you judge this fairly?” on 2011-11-02
• Isaac estimated 10% and said “prediction is not very clear but taking it at face value” on 2011-11-02
• Sandra Åhlén estimated 10% on 2011-11-02
• tswift   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-11-04.
• tswift   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-11-04.
• tswift said “I think their worldviews are becoming more closely aligned, and there’s no way they will create new currencies and create all that infrastructure again. Economic turbulence does lend to some uncertainty tho but it won’t happen.” on 2011-11-04
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-11-04.
• JoshuaZ said “Please do not judge before the deadline. ” on 2011-11-04
• antsan estimated 5% on 2011-11-06
• Metus estimated 5% and said “Would have to be a major change in the minds of millions of people. Though revolutions are often quick, they are not that fast.” on 2011-11-11
• Anubhav estimated 5% on 2011-11-11
• NathanMcKnight estimated 5% and said “I don’t see it happening unless a war breaks out. Now, some countries may get ejected…” on 2011-11-12
• Silver estimated 1% on 2014-08-30
• rebellionkid estimated 1% on 2014-09-09
• KnaveOfAllTrades estimated 0% on 2014-10-18
• qwerty314 estimated 0% on 2014-10-21
• kuudes estimated 0% on 2014-10-24
• mad   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-11-02.