Google+ will surpass Facebook in 2013 (in number of users and level of interaction)

Created by sameganegie on 2011-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2014-01-01.

• sameganegie estimated 45% on 2011-11-04
• Robert Kosten estimated 20% on 2011-11-04
• nyordanov   judged this prediction right on 2011-11-04.
• nyordanov   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-11-04.
• sameganegie changed the deadline from “on 2011-02-05” on 2011-11-04
• gwern estimated 20% and said “fixed date.” on 2011-11-04
• hackedtobits   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-11-04.
• hackedtobits   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-11-04.
• hackedtobits estimated 20% on 2011-11-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 35% on 2011-11-04
• chemotaxis101 estimated 25% on 2011-11-05
• ertancan   judged this prediction right on 2011-11-05.
• gwern   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-11-05.
• mirror2mirror   judged this prediction right on 2011-11-05.
• mirror2mirror said “even in 2012” on 2011-11-05
• gwern said “ I know of no stats saying this is right or wrong, stop judging it.” on 2011-11-05
• gwern   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-11-05.
• PseudonymousUser said “new users: you’re looking for “Join this prediction”. Type how sure you are. If you think it won’t happen, type < 50%.” on 2011-11-05
• falenas108 estimated 20% on 2011-11-06
• Artis estimated 2% on 2011-11-07
• Katie Hartman estimated 40% on 2011-11-09
• Jayson Virissimo said “Will this be judged false if Facebook is surpassed in 2012?” on 2011-11-10
• gimpf estimated 40% on 2011-11-10
• moridinamael estimated 15% and said “what does “level of interaction” mean, though?” on 2011-11-10
• RobertLumley estimated 23% on 2011-11-10
• stephenh estimated 5% and said “possibly in the US, but very unlikely overall” on 2011-11-10
• Metus estimated 25% and said “Facebook has a huge userbase, though I like Google’s interface more.” on 2011-11-11
• Gedusa estimated 10% on 2011-11-12
• fork estimated 10% on 2011-11-12
• kpreid estimated 20% on 2011-11-13
• Wes estimated 5% on 2011-11-14
• Carokann estimated 15% and said “Current plans doesn’t give any hint that this can happen” on 2011-11-16
• 333ira estimated 25% on 2011-11-17
• fnedrik estimated 5% on 2011-11-21
• Grognor estimated 10% on 2011-12-06
• RandomThinker estimated 5% on 2012-05-05
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 5% on 2012-06-11
• hedges estimated 5% on 2013-04-12
• Tuxedage estimated 5% on 2013-04-12
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2013-11-14
• RobertLumley   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-01-01.