United States Facebook user base will fall under 100,000,000 users by December 31, 2013.

Created by Joe Craig on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-24.

• Joe Craig estimated 80% on 2011-11-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 45% on 2011-11-04
• gwern estimated 35% and said “https://www.facebook.com/press/info.php?statistics implies <200m US users. good stats may be hard to come by.” on 2011-11-04
• falenas108 estimated 20% and said “This is a huge fall, and G+ doesn’t look like a strong competitor right now.” on 2011-11-06
• gimpf estimated 25% on 2011-11-10
• stephenh estimated 10% and said “156m US users currently according to http://gold.insidenetwork.com/facebook/. Losing ~60m users in a year is unlikely even if a strong competitor catches on.” on 2011-11-10
• RandomThinker estimated 15% on 2012-05-05
• Qiaochu estimated 0% and said “Currently 167 million users (http://www.socialbakers.com/facebook-statistics/united-states)). I’m responding to the known date, not to the listed date, which is a year later. ” on 2012-10-20
• Qiaochu   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-17.
• CarlShulman   judged this prediction unknown on 2012-12-31.
• gwern said “Carl, why did you mark this unknown? No one has provided any evidence the userbase is <100m.” on 2012-12-31
• RandomThinker said “I think the end date on this is screwed up. The prediction says Dec 2013. The end date says 2012. ” on 2013-01-01
• RandomThinker said “Facebook is safe. They’re at 163m in the US. http://www.socialbakers.com/facebook-statistics/united-states” on 2013-02-24
• RandomThinker   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-02-24.