As of 01-01-2013, according to the CIA World Factbook, none of the top 5 GDP per capita (PPP) countries will contain the word “democracy” or “democratic” in their government type variable.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-01-01.

• Jayson Virissimo estimated 75% on 2011-11-06
• gwern estimated 50% and said “https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28PPP%29_per_capita ” on 2011-11-06
• gwern said “only current member is Norway; next democratic are USA, #9, and other #9s. what are the odds norway will maintain its presence? pretty good, I think, so less than 75%” on 2011-11-06
• Sandra Åhlén estimated 80% and said “In the factbook Norway is listed as a ‘constitutional monarchy’ (and so is Luxembourg and Lichtenstein), no mention of democracy or democratic.” on 2011-11-06
• gwern said “…ok, tht is pretty weird and that makes this prediction more about the factbook’s idiosyncrasies than actual economic trends” on 2011-11-07
• Robert Kosten estimated 90% on 2011-11-08
• ygert   judged this prediction right on 2013-01-01.
• ygert said “But note that the CIA World Factbook is really weird about that field. Many counties are listed as constitutional monarchies even though in practice they are democratic.” on 2013-01-01