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GJP: #1036 Will media reports indicate that Iraq has experienced a military coup (or attempted coup) before 1 June 2012?

Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-06-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-06-02.

  • gwern estimated 25% on 2011-11-08
  • gwern said “Iraqi military not that stupid; have to know US would object strenuously and with airplanes” on 2011-11-08
  • gwern made the prediction on 2011-12-14
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-06-02.