GJP: #1038 Will Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa remain King of Bahrain through 31 January 2012?

Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by faws on 2012-02-01.

• gwern estimated 70% on 2011-11-08
• gwern said “sounds like the protesters are making even less progress than in syria” on 2011-11-08
• gwern made the prediction on 2011-12-14
• _W_ estimated 80% on 2012-01-25
• chemotaxis101 estimated 90% on 2012-01-28
• faws   judged this prediction right on 2012-02-01.