GJP: #1041 Will Italy's Silvio Berlusconi resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, OR otherwise vacate office before 1 January 2012?

Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-03.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2011-11-08
• gwern estimated 80% on 2011-11-09
• gwern made the prediction on 2011-12-03
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2011-12-03.
• gwern said “forgot to close this one” on 2011-12-03