“Silvio Berlusconi to announce his resignation before midnight ET 30 Nov 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12.

• gwern estimated 20% on 2011-11-08
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=753629 non-trading” on 2011-11-08
• Robert Kosten estimated 30% on 2011-11-08
• gwern estimated 90% and said “with the recent announcement of stepping down after the budget vote…” on 2011-11-09
• muflax estimated 80% on 2011-11-10
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 75% on 2011-11-10
• gimpf estimated 50% on 2011-11-10
• timtyler estimated 94% and said ““Berlusconi to quit Saturday after parliament passes reforms”” on 2011-11-12
• NathanMcKnight estimated 99% on 2011-11-12
• NathanMcKnight   judged this prediction right on 2011-11-12.