'Will Palin, Trump, Bloomberg, Paul or Bachmann run as an Independent or 3rd party candidate?' —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-11-09; known on 2012-11-02; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-10-31.

• gwern estimated 25% on 2011-11-09
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=753627 nontrading” on 2011-11-09
• gwern estimated 35% and said “Paul, Bachmann, and Palin are the three to watch out for. hm.” on 2011-11-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2011-11-09
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 33% on 2011-11-10
• chemotaxis101 estimated 20% on 2011-11-10
• RobertLumley estimated 15% on 2011-11-10
• TrE estimated 30% on 2011-11-10
• lavalamp estimated 30% on 2011-11-11
• William-Quixote estimated 20% on 2012-09-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% and said “Updating. Very late in the process for any of them to run now. The Libertarians, Green and Reform parties all have chosen candidates. Many state deadines have passed or are passing soon. ” on 2012-09-09
• Laurent Bossavit   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-10-31.