PredictionBook is now read-only (

Yvain will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2012-10-21.

  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 50% on 2011-11-10
  • gwern estimated 45% and said “has had plenty of opportunity before, even posting his self-calibration article right after my PB article – but no predictions yeton 2011-11-10
  • muflax estimated 30% on 2011-11-10
  • JoshuaZ estimated 35% on 2011-11-10
  • Yvain estimated 100% and said “I like the thought that I might be the first person ever to be justified in predicting something with 100% certainty.on 2012-10-21
  • muflax   judged this prediction right on 2012-10-21.
  • gwern said “Yvain: don’t tempt me to make another prediction where one of the characters is actually a Unicode ligature or something and merely looks like ‘Yvain’!on 2012-10-21