Yvain will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013.
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2012-10-21.
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 50% on 2011-11-10
- gwern estimated 45% and said “has had plenty of opportunity before, even posting his self-calibration article right after my PB article – but no predictions yet” on 2011-11-10
- muflax estimated 30% on 2011-11-10
- JoshuaZ estimated 35% on 2011-11-10
- Yvain estimated 100% and said “I like the thought that I might be the first person ever to be justified in predicting something with 100% certainty.” on 2012-10-21
- muflax judged this prediction right on 2012-10-21.
- gwern said “Yvain: don’t tempt me to make another prediction where one of the characters is actually a Unicode ligature or something and merely looks like ‘Yvain’!” on 2012-10-21
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