Alicorn will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.

  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 10% on 2011-11-10
  • gwern estimated 15% and said “predicting is hard; let’s go fanficcingon 2011-11-10
  • muflax estimated 10% on 2011-11-10
  • JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2011-11-10
  • bobpage estimated 15% on 2011-11-10
  • JoshuaZ said “Predicting seems a lot easier to me than fanfic writing. on 2011-11-10
  • Metus estimated 10% and said “One is measurable, the other is not.on 2011-11-11
  • Anubhav estimated 5% on 2011-11-11
  • shokwave estimated 5% and said “comments on lesswrong indicate she is opposed to the idea, replies are only entrenching her oppositionon 2011-11-11
  • bobpage estimated 5% on 2012-01-14
  • JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2012-01-14
  • Emanuel Rylke estimated 3% on 2012-04-26
  • Emanuel Rylke   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.

Please log in to respond to or judge prediction