PredictionBook is now read-only (

Phil Goetz will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2012-03-25.

  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 33% on 2011-11-10
  • gwern estimated 25% on 2011-11-10
  • muflax estimated 25% on 2011-11-10
  • JoshuaZ estimated 30% on 2011-11-10
  • PhilGoetz estimated 75% and said “Only 75% because I’m not sure that a self-fulfilling prediction is technically a prediction. I leave it to others to judge. :)on 2012-03-25
  • muflax said “I see no problem with it, so judging it correct.on 2012-03-25
  • muflax   judged this prediction right on 2012-03-25.
  • Jayson Virissimo said “Phil, I put these on here (with somewhat low probabilities) in part as a strategy to shame high quality Less Wrongers to join up. In the long run, I think this has a decent chance of improving the product and ensuring its survival.on 2012-03-25
  • Jayson Virissimo said “As I expected, the temptation to prove us wrong is quite strong. Hah!on 2012-03-25
  • Anubhav said “Except that the temptation-push only lasts tnem one or two predictions. Then their ‘meh’ filters kick in. (Remember lukeprog?)on 2012-03-25