I will still be alive in 2013.

Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2014-02-22.

• muflax estimated 99% on 2011-11-10
• muflax said “776/1e6 according to http://deathriskrankings.com/MortStats.aspx; also, might be tricky to judge if I am dead, but that won’t be my problem” on 2011-11-10
• PseudonymousUser estimated 99% and said “I guess you meant “in all of 2013” but who cares if you’re dead for 5 minutes? Maybe try “alive in 2014”” on 2011-11-10
• muflax said “Sorry, I meant “didn’t die before 2013” and set the date high so I can judge after 1.1., but both interpretations have essentially the same probability, I think.” on 2011-11-10
• gwern estimated 99% on 2011-11-10
• Metus estimated 99% on 2011-11-11
• Anubhav estimated 100% and said “776/1e6 is 0.07%. Rounds down to 0. ” on 2011-11-11
• chemotaxis101 estimated 98% on 2012-07-01
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 100% on 2012-07-02
• Grognor said “You know that koan about meeting the muflax on the road?” on 2012-08-24
• chemotaxis101 said “Last blog activity (Tumblr): 12/28. Twitter: 12/29.” on 2014-01-03
• chemotaxis101   judged this prediction right on 2014-02-22.