German Pirate Party to enter Bundestag in next election.

Created by muflax on 2011-11-11; known on 2013-10-27; judged wrong by mfb on 2013-09-22.

• muflax estimated 67% on 2011-11-11
• muflax said “that means they have to get at least 5% or win a direct vote; they had 2% in 2009, see also http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_German_federal_election” on 2011-11-11
• gwern estimated 55% and said “more than doubling their vote share? is that plausible?” on 2011-11-11
• Anubhav estimated 95% and said “They got 10% in Berlin, and that came out of nowhere. And it got them tons of publicity. So yeah, 10% in Germany is VERY plausible,” on 2011-11-11
• gwern said “returns in a cosmopolitan city may not predict returns elsewhere… if you judged like that, Iran would be run by a secular president now” on 2011-11-11
• muflax said “Also, the Green Party did the same thing in ’83.” on 2011-11-11
• Anubhav said “Social difference between European metropolis and the rest of Europe < social difference between Iranian metropolis and the rest of Iran. BTW, the links in the notification emails no longer work. Someone might want to fix that… ” on 2011-11-11
• Anubhav said “Oh, and there’s this: http://bit.ly/qwwwVSThey’re already at 10% in Germany. The question is: do you think their share will drop in the next two years?” on 2011-11-11
• gwern estimated 75% and said “that poll is very interesting. taking it at face value since I don’t know german politics” on 2011-11-11
• JoshuaZ estimated 65% and said “Estimate mainly on the basis of the linked poll. ” on 2011-11-11
• kilobug estimated 65% on 2011-11-19
• Anubhav said “Still going strong. http://bit.ly/H26gQ4” on 2012-03-26
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 95% and said “last time i was way to under confident” on 2012-04-29
• mfb estimated 50% and said “They have to increase their support again to make it.” on 2013-07-15
• mfb estimated 20% and said “based on http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm (German)” on 2013-08-31
• mfb   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-09-22.