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1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035

Created by amcknight on 2011-11-11; known on 2036-01-01

  • amcknight estimated 70% on 2011-11-11
  • JoshuaZ estimated 20% and said “Wikipedia says number of planets has been for the last few Novembers:2003: 582004: 123 (+ 112%) 2005: 146. (+ 18%) 2006: 209 (+ 42%) 2007 268 (+ 28%) 2008: 329 (+ 22%) 2009: 405 (+ 23%) 2010: 495 (+ 22%) 2011:” on 2011-11-11
  • JoshuaZ said “Should have space between 58 and 2004. Also, last should have “2011: 697 (+ 41%)”” on 2011-11-11
  • JoshuaZ said “Is about expontential growth with around 20% per a year. At 20% gives around 200,000 planets in 2035. If assume slightly higher level os 40% per a year (which seems unlikely) get around 2 million. Funding + other worries reduce confidence a lot. ” on 2011-11-11
  • JoshuaZ said “Note that if actually do an approximate exponential using 123 and 297 get around an exponential of 1.24 which is still too small. Even rounding up to 1.25 still too small. (Also earlier remark was wrong. 20% gives around 20,000, not 200,000.) ” on 2011-11-11
  • Anubhav estimated 20% and said “Excel says 32% a year assuming exponential. That’s about 5.6 lakh (=0.56 million) by 2035. ” on 2011-11-11
  • Anubhav said “My bad, 56k, not 5.6 lakh (=560k).” on 2011-11-11
  • Anubhav said “…. Actually, it IS 560 k. Never mind.” on 2011-11-11
  • JoshuaZ said “Anubhav, you only get 34% if you are including the 2003 number, which seems like an outlier to me. ” on 2011-11-11
  • Anubhav said “Without 2003 it’s 27.5%, which gives 231k planets in 2035. Then again, there might be technological jumps and I have no idea how to quantify those.” on 2011-11-11
  • gwern estimated 40% on 2011-11-11
  • JoshuaZ estimated 31% and said “Probably overconfident based on Anubhav’s remarks. ” on 2011-11-11
  • moridinamael estimated 90% on 2011-11-11
  • NathanMcKnight estimated 60% and said “Estimates are orders of magnitude higher & if JWST, or an equivalent launches, the discovery rate will jump dramatically. But does “cataloged” mean “independently confirmed” or will single-study planet candidates suffice?” on 2011-11-11
  • amcknight said “I’m not sure whether to count single-study or not, but I’m counting correctly cataloged planets. False positives don’t count.” on 2011-11-16
  • TrE estimated 26% on 2011-11-16
  • faws estimated 40% on 2011-11-18
  • JoshuaZ said “Relevant recent article: http://www.astroengine.com/2011/11/exoplanet-count-tops-700/” on 2011-11-20
  • JoshuaZ estimated 28% and said “Reducing confidence as rate of confirmation seems to have slowed, and funding for long-term planet finding is drying up. ” on 2012-09-04
  • themusicgod1 estimated 47% and said “up to 715 in 2016…exponential is still too slow, doubling time 8 years.” on 2016-10-09
  • JoshuaZ estimated 27% on 2016-10-09
  • pranomostro estimated 35% on 2018-12-20