China will forgive US debt in exchange for the ending of US-Taiwan defense treaties by or during 2015

Created by gwern on 2011-11-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

• gwern estimated 0% on 2011-11-11
• gwern said “proposed by Paul V. Kane: https://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/11/opinion/to-save-our-economy-ditch-taiwan.html financial criticism: https://chovanec.wordpress.com/2011/11/11/should-we-sell-taiwan/” on 2011-11-11
• Nic_Smith estimated 1% on 2011-11-11
• lavalamp estimated 1% on 2011-11-11
• RobertLumley estimated 1% on 2011-11-11
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2011-11-11
• seifip estimated 1% on 2013-04-14
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.