Clear biomarkers will be detected in the atmosphere of more than one “Super Earth” exoplanet by Christmas, 2017.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2017-12-26; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-12-26.

• NathanMcKnight estimated 90% on 2011-11-11
• JoshuaZ estimated 10% on 2011-11-11
• gwern estimated 10% and said “clear?” on 2011-11-11
• NathanMcKnight said ““Clear” meaning results verified by more than one or two scientific teams, and interpreted by those teams as “very likely” biogenic. ” on 2011-11-11
• Tiresias estimated 10% on 2011-12-20
• themusicgod1 said “http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/17/world/wolf-1061-exoplanet-alien-life/ and others found https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super-Earth#First_super-Earth_found” on 2016-10-09
• themusicgod1   judged this prediction right on 2016-10-09.
• themusicgod1   judged this prediction unknown on 2016-10-09.
• themusicgod1 said “biomarkers, ok that’s enough predictionbook for tonight.” on 2016-10-09
• themusicgod1 estimated 4% on 2016-10-09
• skinnersboxy estimated 2% on 2017-12-20
• imuli estimated 0% on 2017-12-25
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-12-26.