Members of the U.S. House of Representatives will form an “Occupy Caucus” with at least five members within a year after the 2012 elections.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2013-11-06; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-06.

• NathanMcKnight estimated 70% on 2011-11-11
• gwern estimated 45% and said “do we have >5 Occupy candidates already?” on 2011-11-11
• NathanMcKnight said “@gwern: Probably not, but they’ll be positioning themselves as such once the campaign cycle gets into full swing.” on 2011-11-11
• JoshuaZ estimated 35% on 2011-11-15
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% and said “Seems much less likely now. ” on 2012-05-25
• trashrabbit estimated 0% on 2013-10-08
• prototrout estimated 0% on 2013-10-16
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-11-06.