At least one self-described “anarchist” will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.

• NathanMcKnight estimated 70% on 2011-11-11
• RobertLumley estimated 5% on 2011-11-11
• RobertLumley estimated 25% and said “Oh wait, “a national office”, not “President”.” on 2011-11-11
• gwern estimated 40% and said “eh, sure, why not. one fluke over a decade? not going to assign that very low probability” on 2011-11-11
• Gedusa estimated 30% on 2011-11-12
• JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2011-11-13
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 33% and said “Didn’t Paul admit to being a “philosophical anarchist” like Jefferson at some point?” on 2011-11-13
• Anubhav estimated 70% on 2011-11-13
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-09
• pranomostro estimated 50% on 2018-12-20
• amadeu estimated 10% on 2019-04-07
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-01-01.