The technology to render a human effectively invisible (i.e. apparently transparent) to the eye at a distance of less than 100 meters will be publicly demonstrated by 2020.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

  • NathanMcKnight estimated 75% on 2011-11-11
  • gwern estimated 15% on 2011-11-11
  • lavalamp estimated 50% on 2011-11-11
  • bobpage said “This one might be a bit tricky to judge given how many invisibility cloaks are half-assed. For example: what if your invisible man is opaque when viewed from above? What if people wearing polarized glasses can see him?on 2011-11-12
  • NathanMcKnight said “I’m talking naked eye only, and I’m not taking directionality into account. If you can cloak a human being from one side, that would satisfy the constraints of my prediction.on 2011-11-12
  • JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2011-11-12
  • Anubhav estimated 30% on 2011-11-12
  • fork estimated 95% and said “http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/10/invisibility-cloak-mirage/on 2011-11-12
  • themusicgod1 estimated 50% on 2016-10-09
  • pranomostro estimated 45% on 2018-12-20
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.

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