The technology to render a human effectively invisible (i.e. apparently transparent) to the eye at a distance of less than 100 meters will be publicly demonstrated by 2020.
- NathanMcKnight estimated 75% on 2011-11-11
- gwern estimated 15% on 2011-11-11
- lavalamp estimated 50% on 2011-11-11
- bobpage said “This one might be a bit tricky to judge given how many invisibility cloaks are half-assed. For example: what if your invisible man is opaque when viewed from above? What if people wearing polarized glasses can see him?” on 2011-11-12
- NathanMcKnight said “I’m talking naked eye only, and I’m not taking directionality into account. If you can cloak a human being from one side, that would satisfy the constraints of my prediction.” on 2011-11-12
- JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2011-11-12
- Anubhav estimated 30% on 2011-11-12
- fork estimated 95% and said “http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/10/invisibility-cloak-mirage/” on 2011-11-12
- themusicgod1 estimated 50% on 2016-10-09
- pranomostro estimated 45% on 2018-12-20
- JoshuaZ judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.
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