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Synthetic meat will be mass-marketed by 2020.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

  • NathanMcKnight estimated 75% on 2011-11-12
  • gwern estimated 30% on 2011-11-12
  • Isaac estimated 40% on 2011-11-12
  • JoshuaZ estimated 35% on 2011-11-12
  • Anubhav estimated 40% on 2011-11-12
  • fork estimated 1% and said “They haven’t even produced desirable synthetic meat in the lab, yet. 8 years to do that, make it cheap, and create an industry?” on 2011-11-12
  • Gedusa estimated 10% on 2011-11-12
  • NathanMcKnight said ““aMeat” has a scientific consortium & PETA cash. This will mobilize at least one entrepreneur. By “mass market” I just mean they’ll manage to produce it in bulk and put it in a reasonable number of supermarkets. ” on 2011-11-12
  • chemotaxis101 estimated 20% on 2011-11-15
  • fork said “http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2011/11/artificial-meat-economics” on 2011-11-16
  • Anubhav estimated 20% and said “Revising downward because of Wired article. Specifically, the current cost of production. Everything else there is irrelevant. ” on 2011-11-16
  • gwern estimated 10% and said “I didn’t realize things were still as bad as Wired claimed until I read it” on 2011-11-16
  • NathanMcKnight said “The fact that the technical challenges are now identified is a big step forward. Don’t let the negative tone of a particular article color your view:http://io9.com/5859541/the-worlds-first-lab+grown-hamburger-could-be-created-by-august-of-2012” on 2011-11-17
  • Leo estimated 5% and said “Producing media to grow meat in is cheapest inside animals.” on 2012-01-25
  • Pablo estimated 11% on 2012-09-29
  • themusicgod1 estimated 82% and said “Hard to get timing right, but according to my sources there’s serious money/brainpower/tech behind this, aiming on roughly this timescale” on 2016-10-09
  • penten estimated 20% on 2016-12-01
  • pranomostro estimated 2% on 2018-12-20
  • JoshuaZ said “Does Beyond Burger or Impossible count as synthetic meat for these purposes? If so, correct. If mean closer to vat grown meat should mark as false. I’m inclined to mark as wrong. Any objections?” on 2020-01-01
  • Bruno Parga said “I agree that this would have to be lab-grown animal cells rather than plant-based, which is AFAIK what Beyond and Impossible are. Mark as wrong.” on 2020-01-01
  • Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.