A third-party or independent candidate running to the right of the Republican nominee will garner at least 1% of the vote in at least one state in the 2012 U.S. presidential election.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.

• NathanMcKnight estimated 70% on 2011-11-12
• NathanMcKnight changed their prediction from “A third-party candidate running to the right of the Republican nominee will garner at least 1% of the vote in at least one state in the 2012 U.S. presidential election.” on 2011-11-12
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2011-11-12
• Nic_Smith said “How do we determine if a candidate is to the right of the GOP nom? Position based on statements mapped to a Nolan chart?” on 2011-11-12
• Nic_Smith said “E.G. Suppose Ron Paul gets the nom, and then Romney runs as an independent and gets more than 1% of the vote.” on 2011-11-12
• Anubhav estimated 60% on 2011-11-12
• NathanMcKnight said “I mean, Romney gets the nomination, but is perceived as too centrist, so a spate of Tea Party candidates run on various tickets…at least one of which gets 1% in their home state.” on 2011-11-12
• RobertLumley estimated 60% on 2011-11-12
• gwern estimated 50% on 2011-11-12
• NathanMcKnight said “…if Ron Paul runs and gets 1%, his status of “to the right” or “to the left” will be too ambiguous to judge my prediction a success. ” on 2011-11-12
• lavalamp estimated 45% on 2011-11-15
• Aticper estimated 85% and said “I’d bet at reasonable odds on Gary Johnson scoring modestly well for a third part candidate on election day.” on 2012-10-24
• JoshuaZ said “http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results is showing Johnson at at over 1% in multiple states. Marking right. ” on 2012-11-07
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2012-11-07.