By November 2015, Howard Dean will form an exploratory committee to float his name for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-01.

• NathanMcKnight estimated 60% on 2011-11-12
• JoshuaZ estimated 51% on 2011-11-12
• Nic_Smith estimated 33% on 2011-11-12
• RobertLumley estimated 20% on 2011-11-12
• gwern estimated 45% and said “wouldn’t surprise me too much” on 2011-11-12
• David estimated 2% on 2015-10-25
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2015-10-25
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-11-01.