By 2025, more motor vehicle engines will be manufactured using “3D printing” technology than by any conventional manufacturing process.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01

• NathanMcKnight estimated 70% on 2011-11-12
• Anubhav estimated 20% on 2011-11-12
• fork estimated 5% and said “Wouldn’t you need an amazing material sciences breakthrough?” on 2011-11-12
• gwern estimated 10% and said “agree, why do vehicle engines need customization and small runs, which are where 3D printing beats efficient mass-run molds and techniques?” on 2011-11-12
• NathanMcKnight said “The current norm of “subtractive manufacture” of engine blocks is inefficient and energy-intensive, and in today’s drive for higher fuel efficiency, it won’t be able to keep up with the demand for more complex designs.” on 2011-11-12
• Anubhav said “Did you account for the possibility of cheap and plentiful solar energy by 2025?” on 2011-11-13
• NathanMcKnight said “Anything that converts energy to motion counts as a motor. My prediction will hold true for solar motors, if that’s what’s popular in 2025.” on 2011-11-13
• JoshuaZ estimated 11% on 2011-11-13
• lavalamp estimated 7% on 2011-11-15
• kilobug estimated 5% and said “3d printers can’t complex, small, delicate mechanism as for now… and won’t be efficient for doing so for a while” on 2011-11-19
• Anubhav said “Yeah, so the question is, does a 13-year period count as ‘a while’? Technology does move fast, you know. ” on 2011-11-19
• themusicgod1 estimated 19% on 2016-10-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2016-10-09
• pranomostro estimated 8% on 2018-12-20