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By 2025, more motor vehicle engines will be manufactured using “3D printing” technology than by any conventional manufacturing process.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01

  • NathanMcKnight estimated 70% on 2011-11-12
  • Anubhav estimated 20% on 2011-11-12
  • fork estimated 5% and said “Wouldn’t you need an amazing material sciences breakthrough?on 2011-11-12
  • gwern estimated 10% and said “agree, why do vehicle engines need customization and small runs, which are where 3D printing beats efficient mass-run molds and techniques?on 2011-11-12
  • NathanMcKnight said “The current norm of “subtractive manufacture” of engine blocks is inefficient and energy-intensive, and in today’s drive for higher fuel efficiency, it won’t be able to keep up with the demand for more complex designs.on 2011-11-12
  • Anubhav said “Did you account for the possibility of cheap and plentiful solar energy by 2025?on 2011-11-13
  • NathanMcKnight said “Anything that converts energy to motion counts as a motor. My prediction will hold true for solar motors, if that’s what’s popular in 2025.on 2011-11-13
  • JoshuaZ estimated 11% on 2011-11-13
  • lavalamp estimated 7% on 2011-11-15
  • kilobug estimated 5% and said “3d printers can’t complex, small, delicate mechanism as for now… and won’t be efficient for doing so for a whileon 2011-11-19
  • Anubhav said “Yeah, so the question is, does a 13-year period count as ‘a while’? Technology does move fast, you know. on 2011-11-19
  • themusicgod1 estimated 19% on 2016-10-09
  • JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2016-10-09
  • pranomostro estimated 8% on 2018-12-20