I will have played Fate/stay night by the end of this year.

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-01.

• Anubhav estimated 30% on 2011-11-12
• gwern estimated 25% and said “sounds like a lot of work” on 2011-11-12
• Anubhav said “Clarification: By ‘will have played’, I mean ‘will have reached the true end of each of the three scenarios’, not ‘will have reached every possible end.’” on 2011-11-13
• AakashJain estimated 20% and said “Knowing you, probably not.” on 2011-11-15
• Anubhav estimated 5% and said “Still no broadband, and I’m tied down with other stuff. ” on 2011-12-06
• Anubhav   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-01.