HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will update within the next three months.
Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-13.
- ceterisparibus estimated 40% on 2011-11-12
- ceterisparibus on 2011-11-12
- ceterisparibus changed their prediction from “Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be updated within the next three months.” on 2011-11-12
- ceterisparibus said “That is, chapter 78 will be uploaded.” on 2011-11-12
- Anubhav estimated 50% on 2011-11-12
- shokwave estimated 80% and said ““10,000 words as of Oct 29 w/ busy RL” http://www.fanfiction.net/s/5782108/77/Harry_Potter_and_the_Methods_of_Rationality 78 and 79 done by end of January seems likely” on 2011-11-12
- ceterisparibus estimated 80% and said “I had not noticed the latest A/N. Given that he’s already 10000 words in, I’ve revised my estimate accordingly.” on 2011-11-12
- Anubhav estimated 80% and said “^Likewise.” on 2011-11-12
- RobertLumley estimated 90% on 2011-11-12
- gwern estimated 70% and said “hard to believe he could delay more than 3 more months” on 2011-11-12
- Isaac estimated 90% on 2011-11-13
- JoshuaZ estimated 85% on 2011-11-13
- PseudonymousUser estimated 64% on 2011-11-13
- lavalamp estimated 65% on 2011-11-15
- HonoreDB estimated 96% on 2011-11-15
- TrE estimated 95% on 2011-11-16
- kilobug estimated 75% and said “Or else many people will be upset at Eliezer ;)” on 2011-11-19
- stephenh estimated 75% on 2011-11-19
- Grognor estimated 57% on 2011-12-06
- spqr0a1 estimated 50% on 2012-01-17
- chemotaxis101 estimated 45% on 2012-01-28
- ahartell estimated 50% on 2012-01-28
- ahartell said “This is looking increasingly unlikely.” on 2012-02-06
- Anubhav estimated 10% on 2012-02-06
- JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2012-02-06
- HonoreDB estimated 0% on 2012-02-12
- JoshuaZ judged this prediction wrong on 2012-02-13.