Obama will be favored to win the election by Intrade and the Iowa Electronic Markets (both vote share and winner take all) within a few days of tonight's Republican debate.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-11-17; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-13.

• NathanMcKnight estimated 75% on 2011-11-12
• NathanMcKnight changed the deadline from “on 2011-11-16” on 2011-11-12
• gwern said “isn’t he already favored? eg. 51.7% http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474” on 2011-11-13
• NathanMcKnight said “When I posted it, he was favored at Intrade, and IEM’s WTA market, but neck-in-neck in the VS market. It’s a conservative prediction (no irony intended). ” on 2011-11-13
• NathanMcKnight said “As of 2011-11-13 7:07 EST, Obama is the favored candidate in all three markets… http://intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=84326http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_PRES12_WTA.cfmhttp://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_PRES12_VS.cfm” on 2011-11-13
• NathanMcKnight   judged this prediction right on 2011-11-13.