By the end of this month, the Russian Phobos-Grunt interplanetary probe will be destroyed.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-01.

• NathanMcKnight estimated 60% on 2011-11-12
• gwern estimated 50% and said “date is messed up. IIRC it had a month deadline given its orbit” on 2011-11-13
• JoshuaZ estimated 45% and said “Is in low orbit but even if it is completely messed up, given the orbit, I think it could easily take longer to deorbit. ” on 2011-11-13
• NathanMcKnight changed the deadline from “on 2021-12-01” on 2011-11-13
• NathanMcKnight said “Oops! Yes, I meant November 2011.” on 2011-11-13
• JoshuaZ estimated 35% and said “Updating on revised orbital information.” on 2011-11-15
• NathanMcKnight estimated 25% and said “Russian scientists now suggest January as most likely period for re-entry. ” on 2011-11-16
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-01.