Within a month, the British High Court will rule in favor of the journal Nature in the libel case brought against it by Professor Mohamed El Naschie.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-12-13; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2011-12-14.

• NathanMcKnight estimated 80% on 2011-11-12
• gwern estimated 55% and said “it would be nice, but libel in England? expect the worst.” on 2011-11-13
• JoshuaZ estimated 45% and said “Conjunction at work: rules within a month and rules for Nature. ” on 2011-11-13
• Jason estimated 95% and said “The famous pseudo-scientist El Naschie, who, claiming penury, has not hired a lawyer, is described as “incoherent”. The judge, Mrs. Justice Sharp, is friendly with Nature’s defense team, having once shared chambers with them.” on 2011-11-13
• gwern estimated 65% and said “not even a lawyer? That’s different from the libel cases I was thinking of, then. still wondering about the month deadline” on 2011-11-13
• Jason estimated 0% and said “Judgement is expected early 2012, but the outcome against El Naschie is in no doubt. I’m duplicating this prediction without the time constraint on another page.” on 2011-11-15
• Jason estimated 0% and said “predictions/4414 is the version without the one-month time constraint.” on 2011-11-15
• HonoreDB   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-14.