At the end of 2012, the Poincaré conjecture will remain the only solved Millennium Prize Problem.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Qiaochu on 2013-01-01.

• NathanMcKnight estimated 90% on 2011-11-12
• gwern estimated 95% and said “https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems only 1 solved over the last 11 years” on 2011-11-13
• PseudonymousUser estimated 85% on 2011-11-13
• JoshuaZ said “Counting price money awarded or just proof that seems right is published? Conditions for award of prize money are quite strict.” on 2011-11-13
• Anubhav estimated 95% on 2011-11-13
• chemotaxis101 estimated 95% on 2011-11-15
• JoshuaZ estimated 95% on 2011-11-15
• gwern said “I think we can go with the usual community criterion: if the math community thinks a problem is solved, it’s solved. the prize-money is merely nice (what if the awardee turns it down like perelman and the fields? not trying to predict that)” on 2011-11-15
• Qiaochu estimated 99% on 2012-10-14
• Sarokrae estimated 98% on 2012-11-07
• JoshuaZ estimated 99% on 2012-11-07
• RandomThinker estimated 93% on 2012-11-07
• Qiaochu   judged this prediction right on 2013-01-01.