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Created by lukeprog on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-11-15; judged right by lukeprog on 2011-11-15.

  • lukeprog estimated 85% on 2011-11-12
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 75% on 2011-11-13
  • gwern estimated 75% and said “sounds like planning fallacy, but surely lukeprog wouldn’t succumb to that?on 2011-11-13
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 62% on 2011-11-13
  • JoshuaZ estimated 72% on 2011-11-13
  • Jayson Virissimo said “gwern, you forget, for each day of work we get lukeprog gets 1.5 days [/half-serious]on 2011-11-13
  • gwern estimated 80% and said “hm. modafinil, yeah. eh, I’ll split the difference.on 2011-11-13
  • michaelanissimov estimated 100% and said “Working together, me and Luke finished this four hours ago. on 2011-11-15
  • lukeprog   judged this prediction right on 2011-11-15.
  • Jayson Virissimo said “michaelanissimov, this is PredictionBook, not RetrodictionBook. Otherwise, welcome to PredictionBook!on 2011-11-15
  • JoshuaZ said “To expand on Jayson’s remark, if a prediction turns out to be correct or incorrect then click on the relevant button under “Judge this prediction”on 2011-11-15