Germany will not leave Euro by end of 2012

Created by procran on 2011-11-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2013-01-01.

• procran estimated 95% on 2011-11-13
• muflax estimated 99% on 2011-11-13
• muflax estimated 100% on 2011-11-13
• velocirhymer estimated 97% on 2011-11-13
• NathanMcKnight estimated 99% on 2011-11-13
• JoshuaZ estimated 90% on 2011-11-13
• Robert Kosten estimated 70% on 2011-11-13
• Laurent Bossavit estimated 99% on 2011-11-13
• gwern estimated 90% and said “how would we judge this if the Euro splits into two, one euro for the pigs and a different euro for germany/austria etc?” on 2011-11-13
• kilobug estimated 85% on 2011-11-19
• muflax   judged this prediction right on 2012-01-01.
• muflax   judged this prediction unknown on 2012-01-01.
• muflax said “gah, deadline ends now, but title says “end of 2012”, so which is it?” on 2012-01-01
• PseudonymousUser said “Deadline “2012-01-01 20:12:00 UTC” suggests that user entered just “2012”, so deadline should be fixed” on 2012-01-01
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 98% on 2012-01-01
• procran changed the deadline from “on 2012-01-01” on 2012-01-01
• gwern said “fixed date” on 2012-01-01
• muflax   judged this prediction right on 2013-01-01.