“Sometime in the next five years, there will be a terroristic attack in or near Las Vegas.” -David Henderson

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-14; known on 2016-11-14; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-14.

• Jayson Virissimo estimated 1% on 2011-11-14
• Jayson Virissimo said “http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2011/11/a_pessimistic_p.html” on 2011-11-14
• Anubhav estimated 2% on 2011-11-14
• gwern estimated 1% and said “haha. “It seems unlikely that people in the countries whose people are attacked will simply sit back and take it.” No, the evidence suggests they certainly will do just that.” on 2011-11-14
• PseudonymousUser estimated 2% on 2011-11-14
• Nic_Smith estimated 5% and said “Way too specific.” on 2011-11-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2011-11-14
• fork estimated 5% on 2011-11-14
• lavalamp estimated 4% on 2011-11-15
• Tiresias estimated 1% on 2011-12-20
• muflax estimated 0% on 2011-12-20
• themusicgod1 estimated 7% on 2016-04-14
• Andrew MacFie estimated 1% on 2016-05-09
• themusicgod1 estimated 8% on 2016-05-09
• PseudonymousUser said “This one seems under the threshold of being terroristic http://bigstory.ap.org/article/90aa100ebf344830a5987274d520af4b/driver-deliberately-plows-people-vegas-strip-1-dies” on 2016-11-14
• PseudonymousUser said “http://heavy.com/news/2015/12/lakeisha-holloway-driver-who-hit-pedestrians-las-vegas-strip-name-killed-injured-deaths-drunk-charges-child-oregon-planet-hollywood-paris-hotel/” on 2016-11-14
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-11-14.