Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be 100%.

Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 9999-01-02

• RobertLumley estimated 100% on 2011-11-15
• RobertLumley on 2011-11-15
• Anubhav estimated 0% and said “Because it only takes one defector to throw a spanner in the works. ” on 2011-11-15
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2011-11-15
• gwern estimated 0% and said “exactly, there’s an easy and dominant strategy for this particular self-referential prediction” on 2011-11-15
• RobertLumley said “Since this one’s over, I’m withdrawing it now.” on 2011-11-16
• RobertLumley changed the deadline from “on 2012-01-01” on 2013-08-08