Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be 0%.

Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 9999-01-02

• RobertLumley estimated 0% on 2011-11-15
• Anubhav said “……. I see what you did there. ” on 2011-11-15
• RobertLumley said “I wish I could remove the predictions I made from my total, since they obviously don’t make any sense. We just had to start somewhere…” on 2011-11-15
• gwern estimated 1% and said “I’ll just have to take the calibration hit, for the sake of the others!” on 2011-11-15
• RobertLumley withdrew the prediction on 2011-11-22
• RobertLumley changed the deadline from “on 2012-01-01” on 2013-08-08