Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the median estimate on this prediction will be 50%.

Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 9999-01-02

• RobertLumley estimated 50% on 2011-11-15
• Anubhav estimated 30% on 2011-11-15
• gwern estimated 30% on 2011-11-15
• stephenh estimated 70% on 2011-11-19
• RobertLumley withdrew the prediction on 2011-11-22
• RobertLumley changed the deadline from “on 2012-01-01” on 2013-08-08