The SCOTUS ruling on the Obama administration's health care reform law will be a 5-4 decision.

Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-07-01.

• RobertLumley estimated 85% on 2011-11-15
• gwern estimated 70% on 2011-11-15
• RobertLumley said “Oh, I meant to note, this will be considered unknown if SCOTUS differs the case until 2015, which I hear they might do.” on 2011-11-15
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 60% on 2011-11-16
• NathanMcKnight estimated 80% on 2011-11-16
• JoshuaZ estimated 40% on 2011-11-16
• RandomThinker estimated 60% on 2012-03-29
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2012-07-01.