PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

The oldest living person on 2020-01-01 will be at least 130 years old.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 1% on 2011-11-16
  • fnedrik said “This is impossible. There is no one alive today that is 121 years old or more.on 2011-11-16
  • fnedrik said “Hence it is mathematically impossible for someone to age to 130 years in less than 9 years.on 2011-11-16
  • Jayson Virissimo said “fnedrik, how do you know that?on 2011-11-16
  • Jayson Virissimo said “Also, a mathematical impossibility should warrant a 0% probability, should it not?on 2011-11-16
  • fnedrik said “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people If Besse Cooper is alive 2020-01-01 she will be 123 years.on 2011-11-16
  • fnedrik estimated 0% on 2011-11-16
  • JoshuaZ estimated 0% and said “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oldest_living_person#Ten_verified_oldest_people_living oldest person alive is 115. 115+8= 123. Note that I made a list of predictions of various age ranges earlier (which one can see in my prediction list). on 2011-11-16
  • JoshuaZ said “Those were predictions # 3847 to 3859on 2011-11-16
  • Jayson Virissimo said “Ah, thanks. I’ll be sure to search first so as not to create duplicates.on 2011-11-16
  • JoshuaZ said “Also, thanks for reminding me. I had been meaning to add a few more and update some of my estimates which I’ve done so now. on 2011-11-16
  • HonoreDB estimated 0% on 2011-11-16
  • Harbinger1 estimated 5% and said “Hmmmm ….on 2011-11-17
  • Anubhav estimated 0% on 2011-11-17
  • gwern estimated 0% on 2011-11-17
  • faws estimated 0% on 2011-11-18
  • AakashJain estimated 5% on 2011-11-19
  • TrE estimated 0% on 2011-11-20
  • Sniffnoy estimated 0% on 2011-11-23
  • gimpf estimated 0% on 2011-11-28
  • Pablo estimated 0% on 2012-10-01
  • pranomostro estimated 0% on 2018-12-20
  • deleteyourbrain estimated 0% on 2019-04-26
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.