By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-16; known on 2085-01-01

• JoshuaZ estimated 51% on 2011-11-16
• JoshuaZ said “Continuing longevity prediction list. ” on 2011-11-16
• gwern estimated 55% on 2011-11-16
• gwern said “skeptical SENS or similar programs will make much progress. for someone to be 150 in 2085, that means they are already 76 years old (2011 – (2085 – 150)). like many of the longevity predictions, reads like a Singularity bet” on 2011-11-16
• JoshuaZ estimated 45% and said “Hmm, phrased in that context, my estimate has to go down. ” on 2011-11-17
• Harbinger1 estimated 1% and said “not plausible.” on 2011-11-17
• Anubhav estimated 50% on 2011-11-17
• Malgidus estimated 70% and said “This would mean they would be 115 in 2050. 60% chance Singularity, plus biotech, giving this 70%. I would give it 90% that someone born in 1935 will at some time live to 150, but they may “die” for a while.” on 2013-03-27
• David estimated 20% on 2015-07-19
• JoshuaZ estimated 35% and said “Updating on continued failure of serious longevity techniques. ” on 2015-07-19
• JoshuaZ estimated 28% on 2015-10-25
• NathanMcKnight estimated 30% on 2015-12-07
• aseyfarth estimated 10% and said “We would have to currently be working very hard on maintaining a wealthy 81 year old’s life, which I’m not aware we’re doing, but maybe I wouldn’t know even if we were” on 2017-01-30
• pranomostro estimated 40% on 2018-12-20
• deleteyourbrain estimated 0% on 2019-04-26

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