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By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-16; known on 2085-01-01

  • JoshuaZ estimated 51% on 2011-11-16
  • JoshuaZ said “Continuing longevity prediction list. ” on 2011-11-16
  • gwern estimated 55% on 2011-11-16
  • gwern said “skeptical SENS or similar programs will make much progress. for someone to be 150 in 2085, that means they are already 76 years old (2011 – (2085 – 150)). like many of the longevity predictions, reads like a Singularity bet” on 2011-11-16
  • JoshuaZ estimated 45% and said “Hmm, phrased in that context, my estimate has to go down. ” on 2011-11-17
  • Harbinger1 estimated 1% and said “not plausible.” on 2011-11-17
  • Anubhav estimated 50% on 2011-11-17
  • Malgidus estimated 70% and said “This would mean they would be 115 in 2050. 60% chance Singularity, plus biotech, giving this 70%. I would give it 90% that someone born in 1935 will at some time live to 150, but they may “die” for a while.” on 2013-03-27
  • David estimated 20% on 2015-07-19
  • JoshuaZ estimated 35% and said “Updating on continued failure of serious longevity techniques. ” on 2015-07-19
  • JoshuaZ estimated 28% on 2015-10-25
  • NathanMcKnight estimated 30% on 2015-12-07
  • aseyfarth estimated 10% and said “We would have to currently be working very hard on maintaining a wealthy 81 year old’s life, which I’m not aware we’re doing, but maybe I wouldn’t know even if we were” on 2017-01-30
  • pranomostro estimated 40% on 2018-12-20
  • deleteyourbrain estimated 0% on 2019-04-26
  • scatterspace estimated 45% on 2021-06-14
  • scatterspace estimated 5% and said “Read the question wrong initially.” on 2021-06-14
  • JoshuaZ estimated 8% on 2021-06-14
  • sty.silver said “Betting incentives suggest estimating conditional on world not ending since in those cases the prediction cannot be scored. Assuming MW, the prediction not conditioning on world not ending will even be systematically wrong! Not sure what to do here.” on 2021-06-14
  • Deepak estimated 2% on 2021-06-15
  • Prownie estimated 65% and said “i would like to be more optimistic about this prediction (although though it’s still quite a low odds one), all considered.this is adequate time for the ageing space to get funding, work and gov’t attention – especially with ageing populations atm.” 28 days ago
  • JoshuaZ estimated 4% 28 days ago
  • Prownie estimated 1% and said “i realised that this person would be 90 today, in which unfortunately, cancer etc may take them out soon.if we fully treated ageing by 2025, this would be far more likely.i do not think this will happen.” 26 days ago

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