By 2036 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-16; known on 2036-01-01

• JoshuaZ estimated 61% on 2011-11-16
• JoshuaZ said “Continuing list of age-related predictions.” on 2011-11-16
• gwern estimated 25% on 2011-11-16
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/7jh/living_forever_is_hard_part_2_adult_longevity/” on 2011-11-16
• Harbinger1 estimated 60% and said “Very Plausible.” on 2011-11-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% and said “Updating. Looks less likely. ” on 2012-05-17
• RandomThinker estimated 25% and said “The record is 122 right now, and the next is 119. There’s a pool of 450k centenarians right now, and for 1 to survive until 2036, the average survival rate has to be like 60% a yr, which sounds high.” on 2012-05-17
• Medea estimated 20% on 2015-10-08
• pranomostro estimated 40% on 2018-12-20
• pranomostro estimated 30% on 2018-12-20
• deleteyourbrain estimated 0% on 2019-04-26