The Third World War (WW III) death toll will exceed 2.5 billion people, with another 2 billion to follow 15 years after the war has ended.

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-01-16

• Harbinger1 estimated 75% on 2011-11-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% and said “Well, that’s pessimistic. How do you reconcile this with our otherwise optimistic claims about energy and other technologies. The others will be tough if this happens. ” on 2011-11-17
• Anubhav estimated 1% and said “Conjunction fallacy…. ” on 2011-11-17
• lavalamp estimated 40% and said “if WWIII happens, I don’t expect there to be 2b people left to be killed in the subsequent 15 years” on 2011-11-17
• gwern estimated 2% and said “this would be better expressed as a conditional prediction, since now I have to multiply my probability of WWIII (0.05) against the probability a WWIII would pass this threshold (0.25) and round” on 2011-11-17
• themusicgod1 estimated 34% on 2016-05-13
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2016-05-13
• pranomostro estimated 1% on 2018-12-20
• deleteyourbrain estimated 0% on 2019-04-26